This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

This paper analyzes the impact of global risk appetite on the risk premium utilizing high-frequency data. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, we find that the risk premium volatility responds only to a worsening in the risk appetite for the Turkish economy, which is a result that we do...

After the collapse of fixed exchange rate regime in 1980, alternative regimes were adopted in Turkey. The “crawling peg” regime (1980-81) is followed by “managed float” (1981-99), “crawling peg” (1999-2001) and “free floating” (2001-) in “de jure” classification. This paper...