The aim of this paper is to provide a graphical representation of the dynamic relations among the marginal processes of a first order multivariate Markov chain. We show how to read Granger-noncausal and contemporaneous independence relations off a particular type of mixed graph, when directed...

In this paper we introduce a decomposition of the joint distribution of price changes of assets recorded trade--by--trade. Our decomposition means that we can model the dynamics of price changes using quite simple and interpretable models which are easily extended in a great number of...

In the classical Condorcet jury model, different jurors' votes are independent random variables, where each juror has the same probability p1/2 of voting for the correct alternative. The probability that the correct alternative will win under majority voting converges to 1 as the number of...

In the classical Condorcet jury model, different jurors votes are independent random variables, where each juror has the same probability p1/2 of voting for the correct alternative. The probability that the correct alternative will win under majority voting converges to 1 as the number of jurors...