This study aimed to predict the JKII (Jakarta Islamic Index) price as a price index of sharia stocks and predict the loss risk. This study uses geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and Value at Risk (VaR; with the Monte Carlo Simulation approach) on the daily closing price of JKII from 1 August...

The rapid growth of electric vehicles, solar roofs, and wind power suggests that the potential growth in green equity investments is an emerging trend. Accordingly, this study measured the predictors of excess equity returns in a portfolio of global green energy producers, from 2010 to 2019....

Many risk measures can be defined through the quantile function of the underlying loss variable (e.g., a class of distortion risk measures). When the loss variable is discrete or mixed, however, the definition of risk measures has to be broadened, which makes statistical inference trickier. To...

In this paper, we propose a two-step less volatile value-at-risk (LVaR) estimation using the generalized nearly-isotonic regression (GNIR) model. The first step of our LVaR estimation is to produce a VaR sequence under the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)...

The celebrated Expected Shortfall (ES) optimization formula implies that ES at a fixed probability level is the minimum of a linear real function plus a scaled mean excess function. We establish a reverse ES optimization formula, which says that a mean excess function at any fixed threshold is...

This paper examines the optimal allocation of risk across generations whose savings mix is subject to illiquidity in the form of uncertain trading costs. We use a stylized two-period OLG framework, where each generation makes a portfolio allocation decision for retirement, and show that...