In this paper, we study the moment transform of both univariate and multivariate compound sums. We first derive simple explicit formulas for the first and second moment transforms when the (loss) frequency distribution is in the so-called (a,b,0) class. Then we show that the derived formulas can...

FinTech makes numerous financial products accessible to common investors but up to now, there is no risk measure method specially customized for common investors instead of financial institutions which are generally too big to fail. This paper develops a hedging-based utility risk measure (HBU)...

This paper describes the modelling of spread risk, in case of missing or illiquid market data, by using a subset of good quality liquid bond/credit default swap (CDS) spread time series. The proposed method links copula simulation to the actual historical spread dynamics. This is important when...

We develop a LSTM neural network for the joint prediction of volatility, realized volatility and Value-at-Risk. Regularization by means of pooling the dynamic structure for the different outputs of the models is shown to be a powerful method for improving forecasts and smoothing VaR estimates....

We highlight important and specific characteristics of default risk and methodological implications. In a simulation contrasting independent, Gaussian and Clayton copulas, we also show that joint default probabilities might be a hidden source of risk in conventional portfolio models of default

In this paper, we consider a multivariate shortfall risk measure with scenario-dependent allocation weights and examine its properties such as convexity and quasi-convexity. For fixed allocation weights, we show that the resulting risk measure is a convex systemic risk measure in which case the...

We document a substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth over the last 30 years. By modelling secular trends and cyclical changes of the predictive density of GDP growth, we find an accelerating decline in the skewness of the conditional distributions, with significant,...

In this paper, the author demonstrate a practical approach for measurement, management and control of market risk exposure for financial trading portfolios. This approach is based on the renowned concept of Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (L-VaR) along with the creation of a software tool...