In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the "puzzle" why the Lucas critique, belived to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real business cycle model to examine the properties of the super exogeneity test, which is used to detect...

In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the puzzle why the Lucas critique, belived to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real business cycle model to examine the properties of the super exogeneity test, which is used to detect...

In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the puzzle why the Lucas critique, belived to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real business cycle model to examine the properties of the super exogeneity test, which is used to detect...

This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of...

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of life-cycle and dynastic saving behavior for closed and small, open economies. Using an extended version of Blanchard’s overlapping agents model, the analytical framework nests these two competing views, treating agents as either dynastic...

Disputes about econometric methodology partly reflect a lack of evidence on alternative approaches. We reconsider econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reductions, embodied in PcGets. Starting from a general congruent model, standard...