Wind power forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently due to the increasing penetration of wind energy in national power systems. While the initial focus has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp...

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to create calibrated predictive probability density functions (PDFs). The BMA predictive PDF of the...