In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present micro-econometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than...

In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present micro-econometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than...

Los bancos españoles tuvieron que realizar provisiones estadísticas contracíclicas en el período 2000-2004. Los bancos tenían que comunicar los importes de dichas provisiones al mercado. Esto crea un experimento natural que permite testar si los bancos suavizan el resultado para despistar a...

Spanish banks had to set aside a countercyclical loan loss provision during the period 2000 2004. The amount of such provision as well as the allowance accumulated had to be disclosed by banks. The former creates a natural experiment to test whether banks smooth earnings to mislead investors and...

In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present microeconometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than...