We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We...

This paper documents a new stylised fact in foreign exchange markets: intraday currency returns display prolonged reversals around the major benchmark fixings, characterised by an appreciation of the U.S. dollar pre-fixing and a depreciation thereafter. Tracing returns around the clock, the...

Carry trade refers to a risky arbitrage in interest rate differentials between two currencies. Persistent excess carry trade returns pose a challenge to foreign exchange market efficiency. Using a data set of ten currencies between 1990 and 2017, we find: (i) a machine learning model, long...

We investigate carry trade opportunities in major currencies against the US Dollar over the period 2 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2012. There is evidence of significant Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro and Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades during non-crisis periods. The AUD (JPY) was an investment (a funding)...

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. "Commodity currencies" offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international...

This study is motivated by the negative HKD-USD interest rate differentials observed after the US interest rate hike on December 17, 2015. We first analyze two practical concerns that are typical from the perspective of a carry trader: (1) the difference in borrowing rate and lending rate of a...

We provide the first systematic asset pricing analysis of one of the main safe asset categories, the repurchase agreement (repo). A standard, no-arbitrage model with a market and a carry factor prices these near-money assets. While the market factor determines the short-term interest rate level,...

This is a descriptive paper on the excess return from 20 internationally tradable emerging market (EM) currencies. It has two contributions. First, we document stylized facts about EM currencies. For the period starting in the second half of the 1990s and including the two major crises (the 1997...