This paper proposes a novel approach to provide directional forecasts for carry trade strategies; this approach is based on Support VectorMachines (SVM), a Learning algorithm which delivers extremely promising results. Building on recent findings of the literature on carry trade we condition the...

In January 2015, in the face of sustained capital inflows, the Swiss National Bank abandoned the floor for the Swiss Franc against the Euro, a decision which led to the appreciation of the Swiss Franc. The objective of this paper is to present a simple framework that helps to better understand...

We document evidence consistent with retail day traders in the Forex market attributing random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increasing risk taking. Although past performance does not predict future success for these traders, traders increase trade sizes, trade size...

This note examines the relationship between changes in levels of investor fear (measured by VIX) and FX market returns. Our empirical results indicate a negative relationship between daily returns on high-interest rate (investing) currencies and changes in VIX, while the association is positive...

Modelling and forecasting of asset volatility and covariance is of prime importance in the construction of portfolios. In this paper, we present a generalised multi-factor model that incorporates heteroskedasticity and dependence in the idiosyncratic error terms. We apply this model to...

This study employs option-price data to back out the implied cross-sectional return variance in the G10 currencies. It investigates the relation of implied cross-sectional return dispersion in the currency market and subsequent realized cross-sectional return dispersion. We find that implied...

We conduct a firm-level analysis of borrowing in US dollars by non-financial corporates from outside the United States. The dataset combines bond issuance data with firm-level financial information. We find that firms with already high cash holdings are more likely to issue US dollar-denominated...

I quantify the risk-return relationship in the foreign-exchange (FX) market across different countries and investment horizons by focusing on the role of multiple sources of consumption risk. I estimate a flexible structural model of the joint dynamics of US aggregate consumption, inflation,...

This study empirically examines the effect of equity market illiquidity on the excess returns of currency momentum and carry trade strategies. Results show that equity market illiquidity explains the evolution of currency momentum strategy payoffs, but not carry trade. Returns on currency...

We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical...