This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange...

Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with...

The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the...

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of, and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987-2007. Episodes of large...

This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks...

We undertake a quantitative analysis of the dispersion of current accounts in an open economy version of incomplete insurance model, incorporating important market frictions in trade and financial flows. Calibrated with conventional parameter values, the stochastic stationary equilibrium of the...

Recollect and recount lessons from crises. The key lessons are how to anticipate and take pre-emptive action and equally important, once you are in the middle of it, how to respond effectively namely, crisis management. Post crisis, the critical issues are - how do we put in systems and buffers...

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil...

How does financial integration impact capital accumulation when countries differ in the efficacy of internal financial markets? We examine this question within a two-country incompletemarkets model featuring a specific financial friction: agents face uninsurable idiosyncratic risk in their...

In this paper, we analyze credit growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade focusing on the post-2002 rapid credit growth in select countries. We develop regression models of the fundamental determinants of bank credit and use them to examine whether they can fully explain developments in...