Abstract We present new short, medium, and long-run indicators to date and characterise expansions and contractions in financial and economic time series. These Bull-Bear Indicators (BBIs) measure the risk-adjusted excess return with respect to average, to different time horizons, expressed in...

We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...

We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...