This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

This paper examines Turkey’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. Economic performance over the last three years has been impressive. For the medium term, the main challenge is to...

The staff report for the Review of the Staff-Monitored Program and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility highlights economic developments and performance. Fiscal consolidation efforts were sustained, and public finances improved markedly in the...

The article presents the outcomes of dynamic, cross-section analysis of the differences in the level and structure of household indebtedness in EU countries and the range of problems with debt service between 2005 and 2009. Statistical data from of the EU Commission, obtained in the periodic...

This paper examines the First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Dominica. The authorities were encouraged by the stronger-than-envisaged performance, but considered it premature to change the macroeconomic framework. The recent...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Costa Rica’s economic performance improved in 2003. Following several years of slow growth, real GDP rose by 5½ percent, boosted by a recovery of exports and strong private investment. Inflation declined below 10 percent while...

This paper presents the primary institutions and economic policies that have led to Chile’s remarkable record of stability and growth over the past twenty years. The core of this policy stance is the combination of fiscal discipline and an open trade policy regime, together with carefully...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in South Africa slowed in 2003 to 1.9 percent, from 3.6 percent in 2002, despite strong domestic demand. Fuelled by low interest rates, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and the wealth effects from strong commodity and property...