We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of...

This paper uses firm-level data to examine the performance of India's nonfinancial corporate sector since 1989 and evaluate its financial vulnerabilities. While promising trends in liquidity, profitability, and leverage of the sector emerged in the early 1990s, they experienced a reversal after...

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1992, several low-income countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accumulated substantial external debt in a short time span, about half of which is owed to multilateral financial institutions. Three factors contributed to the current...

In this study, the authorities outlined a two-stage strategy and explained the need for requesting the cancellation of Stand-By Arrangement and the approval of a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF). The objective of the three-year program is to review growth...

The staff report for the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility on Dominica focuses on macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy. The program has been based on the expectation that Dominica will achieve a collaborative debt restructuring...

This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which the need to roll over external debt disciplines the policies of debtor countries...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement. Foreign direct investment inflows have been strong, reserves are rising, and competitiveness appears broadly adequate. Fiscal policy has been tightened in 2003, as the...

This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mexico’s real GDP remained subdued in the first half of 2003, with growth of 1.4 percent in the four quarters ending in the second quarter. While recent indicators of activity have been mixed, most observers still expect the economy to...

This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that the South African economy performed well in 2002, notwithstanding difficult global economic conditions. Supported by sound macroeconomic management and a highly competitive exchange rate, real GDP growth rose to 3.0 percent in 2002 from 2.8...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Mexico accelerated to 3.8 percent in the first half of 2004 over the previous year. This recovery is partly attributable to strengthening U.S. industrial production, as reflected in growth in Mexican manufactured exports of...