This paper shows that unexpected stock returns must be associated with changes in expected future dividends or expected future returns A vector autoregressive method is used to break unexpected stock returns into these two components. In U.S. monthly data in 1927-88, one-third of the variance of...

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms,...