Benzoni, Luca; Wernick, Marisa - 2025 - This draft: May 27, 2025
trading activity in the U.S. sovereign CDS market, and we infer a probability of default from CDS premiums. We find that … default risk reached 1% by the November 6 Presidential election, fell quickly after that, and progressively climbed back up in … subsequent months to the current 1.1% level. Overall, these estimates are well below the default risk estimates for the debt …