In the contest of environmental management, the problem of minimizing the expected cost due to random checking processes and a possible failure is here addressed. Non-homogeneous Poisson checking processes with continuous non-decreasing intensity are considered, leading to the explicit detection...

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the...

This paper studies a principal-agent model of the relationship between an incumbent officeholder and the electorate, where the officeholder is initially uninformed about her ability. If officeholder effort and ability interact in the "production function" that determines performance in office,...

This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is originally applied to compute the Weibull parameters for wind characterization analysis, in which an objective function required in GA for searching optimization solution has been first defined as well. Wind data analyzed are observed at a wind farm...

Multi-stage multi-attribute group decision making (MS-MAGDM) as a familiar decision activity that usually occurs in our daily life, such as multi-stage investment decision making, medical diagnosis, personnel dynamic examination, military system efficiency dynamic evaluation, etc. The aim of...