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  • Search: subject:"Density score function"
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ARCH model 1 ARCH-Modell 1 Aktienmarkt 1 Density forecast 1 Density score function 1 Erdgasmarkt 1 Estimation 1 Forecast 1 Forecast evaluation 1 Forecasting model 1 GARCH model 1 GAS model 1 Natural gas market 1 Prognose 1 Prognoseverfahren 1 Risikomaß 1 Risk measure 1 Schätzung 1 Statistical distribution 1 Statistische Verteilung 1 Stock market 1 Theorie 1 Theory 1 Time series analysis 1 Turkey 1 Türkei 1 VAR model 1 VAR-Modell 1 Value-at-risk 1 Zeitreihenanalyse 1
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Özgül, Ali 1
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Istanbul business research 1
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GAS or GARCH : a comparison of density and VaR forecasts in Turkish FX and stock markets
Özgül, Ali - In: Istanbul business research 54 (2025) 1, pp. 58-86
This paper compares the renowned GARCH model with a novel one, the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model in terms of forecasting performance. Considering the gap in the literature, this study focuses on the Turkish stock and FX markets. The analysis covers 25 years (1999-2023), of which...
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