Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. We show that such a procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this...

This paper reassesses the Fisher effect using German data. It argues that the empirical rejection of the Fisher effect in previous studies, i.e., the finding of nominal interest rates not fully adjusting to changes in inflation, may be attributed to the particular time series behavior of...

This paper provides a survey of the recent literature dealing with I(2) variables in economic time series, that is, processes that require to be differenced twice in order to become stationary. With reference to particular models intuition is provided of why I(2) and polynomial cointegration are...

Using the standard linear model as a base, a unified theory of Bayesian Analysis of Cointegration Models is constructed. This is achieved by defining (natural conjugate priors in the linear model and using the implied priors for the cointegration model

This paper describes a three-step algorithm for estimating a system of error-correction equations that can be easily programmed using least-squares procedures. Nonetheless, the algorithm is both statistically and computationally efficient and when iterated gives maximum likelihood estimates of...