We analyse the impact of volatility per se on exports for a a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the UK and the US. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag...

A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and...

We test the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis by examining the relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of fourteen oil exporting countries. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests of cointegration support the existence of a stable relationship...

A systems econometric model of the livestock (beef and pork), poultry (broiler), and corn sectors was estimated to evaluate cross-sector relationships. The equilibrium multipliers and comparative statics indicate unequal cross-effect of market disturbances, e.g., shocks in the livestock and...

This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many...