This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...

The paper deals with the estimation of monthly indicators of economic activity for the Euro area and its largest member countries that possess the following attributes: relevance, representativeness and timeliness. Relevance is obtained by referring our monthly indicators to gross domestic...

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

The headline consumer price index (CPI) is often considered too noisy, narrowly defined, and/or slowly available for policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may even exclude important information. This paper...

This paper proposes a method that takes into account the calendar of European and Belgian intraquarterly data releases to automatically update GDP growth expectations or nowcasts in realtime. The role of surveys is well known in the nowcasting literature, but this is the first paper that has...

Using the generalized dynamic factor model of Forni and al. (2004), one estimates the spectral density matrix. One detects four common factors revealed by the dynamic eigenvalues within the Central African Monetary and Economic Union zone (CAMEU). This allows building a relevant indicator which...

The objective of this paper is to empirically test the deleveraging of the Venezuelan financial system at the event of two contractive shocks, a monetary and an oil shock, and to characterize the types of risks that arise in each case. Although these shocks have similar effects on interest rates...