In this article, we develop a two-factor model of commodity prices that allows meanreversion in short-term prices and uncertainty in the equilibrium level to which prices revert. Although these two factors are not directly observable, they may be estimated from spot and futures prices....

This paper extends the classical Chow (1960) test for structural change in linear regression models to a wide variety of nonlinear models, estimated by a variety of different procedures. Wald, Lagrange multiplier-like, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are introduced. The results allow...

The symmetric causal/acausal dichotomy based model is developed for the bounded noncausal internal dynamics of a high-speed flexible beam, and the resultant modeling redundancy is revealed. The efficient algorithm for computing the nominal torque as well as the state trajectories is proposed to...

This paper reconsiders a nonlinear error-correction model of UK broad money demand by Ericsson, Hendry and Prestwich. Their model can be viewed as an approximation to a smooth transition regression (STR) type specification. The corresponding STR model, when estimated, turns out to encompass the...

Over the last 20 years, consumers have spent a declining portion of their income on food for consumption at home, while the share of income spent on meals purchased at restaurants, cafeterias, and fast-food chains has held constant This article attempts to explain this phenomenon by estimating a...