The paper reviews the economic risks associated with regimes of high public debt through DSGE model simulations. The large public debt build-up following the 2009 global financial and economic crisis acted as a shock absorber for output, while in the recent and more severe COVID19-crisis, an...

India's relative price of investment rose 44% from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26% from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model calibrated to Indian data in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991, in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model...

This paper aims at a critical assessment of the DSGE asset pricing approach. By employing partial indirect inference, we acknowledge that parts of a model are misspecified, while others retain the claim to capture economic reality, namely the ability to price assets traded in real markets....

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...

Recent empirical studies have documented two remarkable patterns shown by euro area banks in the aftermath of the Great Recession: (i) their tendency to boost capital ratios by shrinking assets (contraction of loans supply), and (ii) their reluctance to cut back on dividends (fall in retained...

Presently there is growing interest in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that have more parameters, endogenous variables, exogenous shocks, and observables than the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, and substantial additional complexities from non-Gaussian distributions and the...

This paper presents Aino 2.0 – the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model currently used at the Bank of Finland for forecasting and policy analysis. The paper provides a detailed theoretical description of the model, its estimation and how it can be used to interpret the evolution...

To explain the high and persistent unemployment rate in the U.S. during and after the Great Recession, this effort develops and estimates a DSGE model with search and matching frictions and shocks to unemployment benefits and matching efficiency. It finds that the unemployment benefits play an...

The euro area crisis highlights the issue of sovereign debt in a heterogeneous monetary union. This heterogeneity concerns, in particular, inflation rates, GDP growth rates, current account balances and ratios of public deficits and debts to GDP. This paper mainly aims to investigate such...