This paper studies a simple endogenous growth model to explain growth slowdowns. It is designed to explain, for example, the middle income trap often observed in the south-east Asian countries, the U.K.'s productivity puzzle after the Great Recession and the lost decades of Japan in a unified...

We relax the standard assumption in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature that exogenous processes are governed by AR(1) processes and estimate ARMA (p,q) orders and parameters of exogenous processes. Methodologically, we contribute to the Bayesian DSGE literature by using...

This paper develops a new framework of level-k DSGE for monetary policy analysis. Incomplete markets are introduced to guarantee the eductive stability of the equilibrium. k=1.334 is estimated using growth and inflation forecasts from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, capturing the missing...

This paper examines the question whether information is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged values, which are extensively used in the models. Four sets of forecasts are examined. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP. The results suggest...

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the...

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policy makers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading...

This paper highlights some of the theoretical and practical implications for monetary policy and exchange rates that derive specifically from the presence of a global general equilibrium factor embedded in neutral real policy rates in open economies. Using a standard two country DSGE model, we...

This paper investigates the role of observed official inflation-target adjustments in aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations in Indonesia, using an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The paper finds that these adjustments or shocks play a non-trivial role in the...

Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how this theory has evolved from its roots in the early real business cycle models of the late...