We assess the extent to which the imposition of a no-arbitrage restriction on the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model helps obtaining more accurate forecasts of the term structure. For that purpose, we provide an empirical application based on a large panel of Brazilian interest rate future contracts...

The authors analyze 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress which are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a...

In this paper, we propose a modification of the three-pass regression filter (3PRF) to make it applicable to large mixed frequency datasets with ragged edges in a forecasting context. The resulting method, labeled MF-3PRF, is very simple but compares well to alternative mixed frequency factor...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the highdimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors. The...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the high-dimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors....

In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation by Leung and Sircar (2015). This transformation adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the discrepancy between the IV smiles for levered and unlevered ETF...