We extend the semi-parametric estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller's (1993) conditional choice probability (CCP) approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We...

We examine the confounding between models of intertemporal choice. Critical outputs from hyperbolic, exponential and arithmetic discounting are all highly multicolinear in commonly used research designs. This confounding means that if one model defines a participant as impulsive, they all will:...

This paper considers the question of under what circumstances a new environmental regulation should "phase in" gradually over time, rather than being immediately implemented at full force. The paper focuses particularly on climate policy, though its insights are more general. It shows that while...

This short note summarizes the theory part of "Non-parametric test of time consistency: Present bias and Future bias" [Takeuchi, forthcoming, Games and Economic Behavior]. It proves that (1) the sub(super)modular equivalent delay function corresponds to present (future) bias, and it also...

All Courts rule ex-post, after most economic decisions are sunk. This might generate a time-inconsistency problem. From an ex-ante perspective, Courts will have the (ex-post) temptation to be excessively lenient. This observation is at the root of the principle of stare decisis. Stare decisis...

We conducted an experiment to explore the time-consistency of risk preferences in a multi-period betting game. Specifically, subjects planned their contingent betting decisions in advance then played the game dynamically later to determine whether their respective decisions matched. We found...

Recent cross-country studies on the globalization and output-inflation tradeoff correlation find openness has no significant effect on OECD countries. Those studies assume parameter constancy across countries. In this paper, we argue that this assumption does not hold for major industrialized...

To study the role of elections in financial market instability, we focus on the role of credit risk pricing during elections from 2004 to 2007 in thirteen emerging market economies. We use a unique dataset of daily credit default swap (CDS) pricing, with standard macroeconomic controls, to study...

Although most of the theory development concerning risk measures has concentrated on convex or even coherent risk measures, nonconvex risk measures are used in practice, the prime example of course being Value-at-Risk. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between various...