The 2008 financial crisis has shown that financial busts can influence the real economy. However, there is less evidence to suggest that the same holds for financial booms. Using a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model and euro area data, I show that financial booms tend to be less...

This paper identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses...

This paper introduces a nonlinear certainty-equivalent approximation method for dynamic stochastic problems. We first introduce a novel, stable, and efficient method for computing the decision rules in deterministic dynamic economic problems. We use the results as nonlinear and global...