Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increases in the quantity sold. Demand estimation based on temporary price reductions may mis-measure the long run responsiveness to prices. In this paper we quantify the extent of the problem and assess...

Recent analyses of the gains to policy coordination have focussed on the strategic aspects of macroeconomic policy making in a static setting. A major theme is that noncooperative policy making is likely to be Pareto inefficient because of the presence of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This paper...

Since 1914, incumbent U.S. senators running for reelection have won almost 80% of the time. We investigate why incumbents win so often. We allow for three potential explanations for the incumbency advantage: selection, tenure, and challenger quality, which are separately identified using...

This paper studies the econometrics of computed dynamic models. Since these models generally lack a closed-form solution, their policy functions are approximated by numerical methods. Hence, the researcher can only evaluate an approximated likelihood associated with the approximated policy...

This paper analyzes panic buying of storable consumer goods, using a novel macroeconomic model of consumers' inventory adjustment featuring search frictions in shopping. Even if consumers are fully rational, an anticipated temporary increase in consumer shopping costs (caused by a disaster...

Regime shifts in different economic time series may be interconnected in various ways, some of which are investigated within a Markov-switching modeling framework. We derive restrictions implied by the lead-lag relationship and the conditional independence, estimate the restricted models, and...

In this paper we provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow (S,s) policies. We characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy's aggregate to that of its frictionless counterpart, determine...

This paper studies the dynamic trade-off between the short-run costs and the long-run benefits of bank bailouts. In the model, banks leverage thanks to their cost advantage at monitoring firms, but hold precautionary capital buffers to avoid costly equity issuance after negative shocks. Banks'...

Driven by increased complexity of dynamical systems, the solution of system of differential equations through numerical simulation in optimization problems has become computationally expensive. This paper provides a smart data driven mechanism to construct low dimensional surrogate models. These...

Bigger governments raise the possibilities for corruption; more corruption may in turn raise the support for redistributive policies that intend to correct the inequality and injustice generated by corruption. We formalize these insights in a simple dynamic model. A positive feedback from past...