Most macroeconomic crises, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, are associated with endogenous large changes in beliefs and understandings about the workings of the economy. Such downturns and crises are not consistent with the standard paradigm of a well-functioning competitive economy,...

This study attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator serving as a composite indicator for the state of financial vulnerability. The indicator was constructed from 10 variables of macroeconomic, financial and property market by extracting a common vulnerability component through the...

This paper provides sufficient conditions for nonparametrically identifying dynamic games with incomplete information, allowing for multiple equilibria and payoff-relevant unobservables. Our identification involves two steps. We first identify the equilibrium conditional choice probabilities and...

The when and/or how improved environmental-performance leads to improved macroeconomic-performance under increasing likelihood of global-warming abatement are not well understood. We thus formulate a simple Stochastic Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB-S) model that is qualitatively...

The dynamic factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model introduced by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) has proven to be a powerful framework to measure the business cycle. We extend the DFMS model by allowing for time-varying transition probabilities, with the aim of accelerating the real-time dating of...

The firm is the driving force of the economy since the activities of the firms boost aggregate demand as well as aggregate supply but it is the performance of the financial system which facilitates or restricts the activities of the firms. Financial systems allocate resources from savers to...

Modelling dynamic conditional heteroscedasticity is the daily routine in time series econometrics. We propose a weighted conditional moment estimation to potentially improve the efficiency of the QMLE (quasi maximum likelihood estimation). The weights of conditional moments are selected based on...

We study a fixed-T panel data logit model for ordered outcomes that accommodates fixed effects and state dependence. We provide identification results for the auto-regressive parameter, regression coefficients, and the threshold parameters in this model. Our results require only four...