Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, 2012 Southern Chester County Chamber of Commerce Fall Luncheon, October 11, 2012

The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fiscal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in...

Understanding the workings of whole economies is essential for sound policy advice - but not necessarily for accurate forecasts.  Structural models play a major role at most central banks and many other governmental agencies, yet almost none forecast the financial crisis and ensuing...

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia CFA Society of Philadelphia/The Bond Club of Philadelphia, September 25, 2012

During the financial crisis of 2007–09, the Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to stem financial panic. Since then, the Fed has also taken extraordinary action to boost economic growth. The Fed continues to do its level best to achieve its congressionally mandated goals of maximum...

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, 2012 Southern Chester County Chamber of Commerce Fall Luncheon, October 11, 2012

This paper develops the theory of multi-step ahead forecasting for vector time series that exhibit temporal nonstationarity and co-integration. We treat the case of a semi-infinite past, developing the forecast filters and the forecast error filters explicitly, and also provide formulas for...

We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive measures of forecast uncertainty, forecast dispersion, and forecast accuracy. We construct uncertainty measures from aggregate density functions as well as from...

Presentation to the Bishop Ranch Forum, San Ramon, California, February 8, 2012 ; President Williams presented similar remarks to The Columbian’s 2012 Economic Forecast Breakfast in Vancouver, Washington, on January 10, 2012.

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Rotary Club of Wilmington, Wilmington, Delaware, March 29, 2012