The economic and financial crisis that emerged in 2008 also initiated an intense discussion on macroeconomic research and the role of economists in society. The debate focuses on three main issues. Firstly, it is argued that economists failed to predict the crisis and to design early warning...

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level...

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the...

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to...

President Plosser discusses why he thinks the economy is on firmer footing than it has been for the past several years. He also discusses why he believes it is appropriate to end asset purchases and why he supported the FOMC's decision in January to continue to reduce the pace of purchases....

This paper considers Ireland’s growth prospects through 2030. Real GDP growth averaging 3 per cent per year is possible but will require a stronger labour productivity growth performance than is currently projected by OECD. Success depends on a favourable external environment and would be...