Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco; Iacone, Fabrizio; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
valuable information regarding the markets’ assessment of a country’s chances of joining EMU. The case of Italy is interesting … because in the survey regularly conducted by Reuters the probability that Italy joins EMU in 1999 fluctuated, in the first … observed reduction in interest rate spreads signals a higher probability of joining EMU at a given time, or simply reflects …