The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck’s (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models postulate meanreverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend, and are estimated using...

The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. As with other recent studies that examine this series, they adopt an error-correction framework. Estimations using non-linear least squares and quarterly data yield both a good model fit and...

The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. The class includes analogues of the well-known Diebold and Mariano (1995) parametric and...

The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The authors address several important econometrics issues...

In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Empirical evidence reported in the paper suggests that economic activity in the...

Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. The risk-free government zero-coupon term structure is, however, not directly observable and needs to be generated from...

The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. Unlike tests based on the generalized method of moments, the generalized Anderson-Rubin (1949) tests are immune to the presence of weak instruments and allow, by...

In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. For instance, they model and measure the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the exchange rate and income. PAC models provide a theoretical...

The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market...

Technological innovations in the financial industry pose major problems for the measurement of monetary aggregates. The authors describe work on a new measure of money that has a more satisfactory means of identifying and removing the effects of financial innovations. The new method...