This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked...

This essay reviews Epstein, Landes, and Posner's The Behavior of Federal Judges: A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Rational Choice. Their book systematically asks how the role of ideology varies across the tiers of the federal judicial hierarchy. A major finding is that the impact of ideology...

Marginal improvement, significant impact -- Blinded by bias -- Rational decisions -- Decision analysis -- How to solve any problem -- Cerebral junk food -- The input paradox -- Auditing mental accounting -- Mistakes at the heart of investment management -- Manager selection -- Prophecy of value...

"This book focuses on the application of the methods organized in statistical physics, fuzzy logic, neuro nets and combinatorial stochastic processes which have been proven useful in analyzing complex evolving systems. It explores real data cases that provide upper level students and investment...