When comparing predictive distributions, forecasters are typically not equally interested in all regions of the outcome space. To address the demand for focused forecast evaluation, we propose a procedure to transform strictly proper scoring rules into their localized counterparts while...

When comparing predictive distributions, forecasters are typically not equally interested in all regions of the outcome space. To address the demand for focused forecast evaluation, we propose a procedure to transform strictly proper scoring rules into their localized counterparts while...

This paper extends the popular Diebold-Mariano test to situations when the forecast error loss differential exhibits long memory. It is shown that this situation can arise frequently, since long memory can be transmitted from forecasts and the forecast objective to forecast error loss...

This paper extends the popular Diebold-Mariano test to situations when the forecast error loss differential exhibits long memory. It is shown that this situation can arise frequently, since long memory can be transmitted from forecasts and the forecast objective to forecast error loss...

The size and power properties of several tests of equal Mean Square Prediction Error (MSPE) and of Forecast Encompassing (FE) are evaluated, using Monte Carlo simulations, in the context of dynamic regressions. For nested models, the F-type test of forecast encompassing proposed by Clark and...

The size and power properties of several tests of equal Mean Square Prediction Errors (MSPE) and of Forecast Encompassing (FE) are evaluated, using Monte Carlo simulations, in the context of nested dynamic regression models. The highest size-adjusted power is achieved by the F-type test of...