Markets are information aggregators. But how do they incorporate new data into their pricing? We examine the response of prediction markets to a novel information shock in a quasi-natural experiment: How did the absence announcements of elite soccer players influence the betting odds of affected...

Following the work of Shin (1993) and Cain, Law and Peel (1997, 2001), several researchers have reported estimates of the fraction of money placed on sports betting by "insiders" with superior information to bookmakers. We show the method for estimating the fraction of insiders used in this...

Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based...

If betting markets are efficient, then the expected loss rate on all bets on a game can be calculated from the quoted odds. Guides to sports betting tell bettors how to do this calculation of the predicted average loss rate. We show that if bookmakers set higher profit margins for bets with...

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in...

We describe how the presence of insiders with superior information about potential outcomes of sporting events affects odds set by bookmakers, using a generalized version of the model in Shin (1991). The model has been widely cited as an explanation for the pattern of favorite-longshot bias...