We consider estimation and inference about the effects of a policy in the absence of a control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the average treatment effects, based on forecasting...

Long-memory models are frequently used in finance and other fields to capture long-range dependence in time series data. However, correctly identifying whether a process has long memory is crucial. This paper highlights a significant limitation in using the sample autocorrelation function (ACF)...

We propose a method for forecasting individual outcomes and estimating random effects in linear panel data models and value-added models when the panel has a short time dimension. The method is robust, trivial to implement and requires minimal assumptions. The idea is to take a weighted average...

This article presents a computationally efficient approach to sample from Gaussian state space models. The method is an instance of precision-based sampling methods that operate on the inverse variance-covariance matrix of the states (also known as precision). The novelty is to handle cases...

A critical requirement for efficient fiscal policy is a reliable understanding of its impact on the aggregate economy for different policy instruments and under different economic conditions. Indeed, there is strong evidence to suggest that fiscal multipliers vary with economic conditions, the...

Improved varieties are considered critical for increasing crop yields worldwide. This study explored the effects of public agricultural extension and pest and disease experience on adoption of improved varieties using survey data on 525 wheat farmers in Anhui Province, China, to which the...

Several countries of the world are involved in mutual and collaborative business of military equipments, weapons in terms of their production, sales, technical maintenance, training and services. As a consequence, manufacturing of boms, rockets, missiles and other ammunitions have taken...

The coefficient of the variation function is a useful descriptive statistic, especially when comparing the variability of more than two curve groups, even when they have significantly different mean curves. Since the coefficient of variation function is the ratio of the mean and standard...