The use of observational methods remains common in program evaluation. How much should we trust these studies, which lack clear identifying variation? We propose adjusting confidence intervals to incorporate the uncertainty due to observational bias. Using data from 44 development RCTs with...

We extend the monitoring of structural breaks in classic cointegration proposed by Wagner and Wied (2017) to explicitly allow for fractional cointegration and breaks in these fractional relations with possible deterministic trends. To estimate the parameters we use a fully modified OLS estimator...

This paper proposes an estimator that accounts for time variation in a regression relationship with stochastic regressors exhibiting long-range dependence, covering weak fractional cointegration as a special case. An interesting application of this estimator is its ability to handle situations...