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Forecasting Accuracy Exception Reporting 1 M3-Competition 1 ROC 1 ROC curves 1 Time Series Forecasting 1 crime forecasting 1 exception reporting 1 forecast accuracy measures 1
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Gorr, Wilpen 1 Schneider, Matthew 1
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Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis to Evaluate Large-Change Forecast Accuracy
Gorr, Wilpen; Schneider, Matthew - 2010
This paper applies receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to M3 Competition, micro monthly time series for one-month-ahead forecasts. Using the partial area under the curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired-comparison testing via bootstrapping, we find that...
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