Search Results - subject:"Exchange rate forecasts"

IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries : bias, inefficiency, and their origins

Eicher, Theo S.; Kawai, Reina - In: International journal of forecasting 39 (2023) 4, pp. 1615-1639

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465338

Decision-making, uncertainty and the predictability of financial markets: essays on interest rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates

Kunze, Frederik - 2018

cumulative dissertation addresses the economic relevance of interest rate, crude oil and exchange rate forecasts for policy as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012169117

Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads

Wellmann, Dennis; Trück, Stefan - In: Journal of international money and finance 81 (2018), pp. 56-75

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000021

Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates

Hossfeld, Oliver - 2010

We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011345474

Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates

Hossfeld, Oliver - FIW - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764432

Equilibrium real effective exchange rates and real exchange rate misalignments : time series vs. panel estimates

Hossfeld, Oliver - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374380

Exchange rate forecasters' performance: Evidence of skill?

MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - 2009

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264610

Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?

MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - CESifo - 2009

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000372

Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?

MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - Department of Economics, Adam Smith Business School - 2009

analyzing a broader sample of individual exchange rate forecasts is Ito (1990). He examines the yen-dollar exchange rate … already noted, the ZEW-survey asks about exchange rate forecasts as well as several other economic variables. Considering … the US, Great Britain and Japan respec- tively. Regarding the exchange rate forecasts, we use daily exchange rates of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005729930

Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach

Jongen, Ron; Verschoor, Willem F.C.; Wolff, Christian C.P. - In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36 (2012) 5, pp. 719-735

This paper combines survey forecasts with a heterogeneous agent model to examine the dispersion of expectations of participants in the foreign exchange market. We find distinct variations in the level of dispersion and document that dispersion arises because of the combined effect of market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010871040