Search Results - subject:"Expectation Formation"

Measuring biases in expectation formation

Peters, Florian; Kucinskas, Simas - 2018

We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992

How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783

Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

Holtemöller, Oliver; Schult, Christoph - 2018

business cycles, economic forecasting, expectation formation, financial frictions, macroeconomic modelling …) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial …. It turns out that neither alternative expectation formation behaviour nor financial frictions can systematically increase …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897574

How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937404

How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? : evidence from the German reunification

Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Exploiting the natural experiment of the German reunification, we examine how consumers adapt to a new environment in their macroeconomic forecasting. We document that East Germans expect higher inflation and make larger forecast errors than West Germans even decades after reunification....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937408