I show that a simple asset pricing equilibrium model can explain many salient features of index option prices if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. A representative investor holds subjective beliefs about the underlying asset returns, which he optimally learns from past...

Consider a firm owned by shareholders with heterogeneous beliefs and run by a manager. Shareholders can trade contingent claims in a complete asset market. The manager is given a contract so that at equilibrium she chooses the plan preferred by shareholders. We show that the contract should...

Financial derivatives linked to the median, which is the 50%-th percentile of a distribution, have not been extensively studied in realistic models of financial markets, as such derivatives simply did not exist until recently. The Libor reform that brought a seismic change to the interest rate...

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates versus term premia? And what are the macroeconomic consequences? Applying an affine term structure model to high-frequency yield curve movements around FOMC announcements, we shed new light on these questions....

Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany after reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately after reunification with respect to their job risk. Over time, job loss...

Tests of the expectations hypothesis reveal that the slope of the VIX futures term structure predicts the direction but not the magnitude of the evolution of the short-end of the curve, but predicts neither the direction nor the magnitude of short-term changes in the long-end of the curve....

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We first show analyst forecasts outperform statistical forecasts at short-horizons, but underperform at longer horizons. We next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts...

We propose a rational theory of momentum and reversal based on delegated portfolio management. An investor can hold assets through an index or an active fund. Investing in the active fund involves a time-varying cost, interpreted as managerial perk or ability. The investor responds to an...

A key question about the Great Depression is whether expansionary monetary policy in the United States would have led to a loss of confidence in the U. S. commitment to the gold standard. This paper uses the $1 billion expansionary open market operation undertaken in the spring of 1932 as a...

The success of a country's anti-corruption policies can crucially depend on the citizens' beliefs about the existing legal environment. We test this key idea of Basu (2020) using a novel design which systematically manipulates beliefs of participants in an experiment. Our results suggest that...