We provide a new characterization of AGM belief revision in terms of a Kripke-Stalnaker-Lewis semantics. We consider pointed frames consisting of a set of states, a distinguished state interpreted as the actual state, a Kripke belief relation and a Stalnaker-Lewis selection function. Adding a...

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning short-term interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict...

A very popular model-agnostic technique for explaining predictive models is the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP). There is a conditional version and an unconditional one of SHAP, the latter is also known as interventional SHAP. Except for tree-based methods, usually the unconditional version...

In this study, it is aimed to compare the performances of the methods by predicting the movement directions of stock market indexes in developed countries by employing machine learning methods (MLMs) and determining the best estimation method. For this purpose, the movement directions of indexes...

Income-driven repayment plans lower required payments for student loan borrowers when their income decreases. This helps to reduce student loan defaults. Despite universal availability, only a minority of student loan borrowers in the U.S. are in an income-driven repayment plan. In this study, I...

I conduct a randomized information experiment to study the response of individual expectations to the views of professional forecasters. In the experiment, respondents are randomly divided into two groups to receive truthful but different professional forecasts of nationwide house prices. I find...

We use survey data to investigate the relation between widely used sentiment indices and real investor beliefs. We find a strikingly low congruency between sentiment indices and investor expectations of future stocks returns. More importantly, the sentiment indices are found to have poor...

We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households' expectations. Empirically, we find that homeowners revise down their near-term inflation expectations and their optimism about future labor market conditions in response to a rise in mortgage rates, while...

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by...

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also...