Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces...

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel...

We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively) related to financial resilience. Financial...

We study how beliefs about the automatability of workers' occupation affect labor-market expectations and willingness to participate in further training. In our representative online survey, respondents on average underestimate the automation risk of their occupation, especially those in...

This paper studies if workers infer from correlation about causal effects in the context of the part-time wage penalty. Differences in hourly pay between full-time and part-time workers are strongly driven by worker selection and systematic sorting. Ignoring these selection effects can lead to...

Wage growth occurs almost exclusively in full-time work, whereas it is close to zero in part-time work. German women, when asked to predict their own potential wage outcomes, show severely biased expectations with strong over-optimism about the returns to part-time experience. We estimate a...

Profit-maximizing firms hedge risk from uncertainty by deciding on capacity investment and production. Typically, risk-averse firms monotonically forgo expected profit in exchange for an improved risk measure, e.g., conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). However, the stochastic-equilibrium literature...

This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that resembles actual wage differences, prevails across subgroups,...