Price-level targeting (PLT) is optimal under the fully-informed rational expectations (FIRE) benchmark but lacks empirical support. Given the hurdles to the implementation of macroeconomic field experiments, we utilize a laboratory group experiment - where expectations are elicited from human...

The conditional skewness of Treasury yields is an important indicator of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Positive skewness signals upside risk to interest rates during periods of accommodative monetary policy and an upward-sloping yield curve, and vice versa. Skewness has substantial...

This paper studies the relationship between climate risk and credit risk. We find a negative correlation between emission levels and default risk once firm's fixed characteristics are taken into account. By breaking down Moody's Expected Default Frequencies (EDFs) into its main components, we...

Identifying anomalies, or empirical facts that contradict theoretical predictions, is a common form of proof by contradiction in economics and finance. We identify a pricing anomaly in the market for trading cards: large and persistent death effects of about 20% are observed following the death...

Heterogeneous beliefs modify the New Keynesian Phillips curve by introducing a term in the cross-section distribution of expectations. We develop a novel functional data approach to estimation and inference in survey-based Phillips curves that accounts for variation in distributions of...

Uncertain information is frequently confirmed or retracted after people have initially heard it. A large existing literature has studied how people change their beliefs in response to new information, however, how people react to information about previous information is still unclear. We...

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...

When people flip coins, they usually believe that heads and tails are nearly equally likely. However, most potential events invite far more uncertainty, with sharply conflicting hypotheses competing for favor and people unclear about how to rate them. Looking at a single outcome, it is...