This article is set within the framework of studies focusing on the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the dynamics of economic activity. For the purposes of the analysis of the expectations expressed in business tendency surveys, the paper aims to verify whether the pandemic of 2020-2022 can be...

Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex-ante) and realized (ex post) earnings....

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to explore econometrically whether distributional...

Current R&D expenditures forecast cash-based operating profitability up to three years in the future and sometimes as much as ten years, but do not forecast asset growth. High R&D firms have positive loadings on a cash-based operating profitability factor, and zero alphas. Capitalizing R&D to...

I test the rational expectations hypothesis for stock market returns using two different samples (UBS/Gallup, CFO). Although rational expectations are conditionally rejected, unconditionally, I cannot reject equality between average investor expectations during the survey periods (2000-2003,...

This paper proposes an option pricing model which can estimate the market’s expected return and the market’s uncertainty of this return while complying with various complex characteristics of real world markets. First, it is proposed that the market is not homogenous; the market is made up...