Recessions are a regularity of the economic landscape. In this research paper we provide a guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider

We use the long-term Capital Market Assumptions of major asset managers and institutional investor consultants from 1987 to 2022 to provide three stylized facts about their subjective risk and return expectations on 19 asset classes. First, the subjective distribution of asset class returns is...

Social learning (SL) is a behavioral model in which expectations and the resulting aggregate dynamics stem from the interactions of a large amount of heterogeneous agents. Nonetheless, this framework has so far lacked micro-foundations and a general-solution method. This paper bridges these two...

This article explores a legal solution, via the legitimate expectations doctrine, to calls for reform of corporate purpose away from shareholder value maximisation and profits, towards a social corporate purpose (SCP). Such a reform would also be used to facilitate corporate human rights due...

Using a large-scale online survey experiment, we study the effects of changes in three borrower-based macroprudential policy tools, residential loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income, and buy-to-let LTV ratio, on British consumers’ housing market expectations. A policy loosening generally leads...

I introduce a survey of economic expectations formed by querying a large language model (LLM)’s expectations of various financial and macroeconomic variables based on a sample of news articles from the Wall Street Journal between 1984 and 2021. I find the resulting expectations closely match...

I demonstrate that prices impact equity research analyst cash flow expectations. Using several instruments based on mutual fund flow-induced trading, I find analysts update their long- and short-term cash flow expectations in response to price changes caused by noise trading unrelated to cash...

We study a multi-location model with financial market segmentation that permits self-fulfilling fluctuations. Such fluctuations are necessarily idiosyncratic, but their volatility varies systematically with an aggregate latent factor. We thus provide a coordination-based microfoundation for...

This paper proposes an heterogenous asset pricing model in which different classes of investors coexist and evolve, switching among strategies over time according to a fitness measure. In the presence of boundedly rational agents, with biased forecasts and trend following rules, rational or...

Persistent financial concerns often lead to poor mental health, which is why we need to better understand which factors contribute to it. I elicit determinants of household heads' and non-household heads' expected financial distress after the sudden energy-price hike in the UK in 2021 and find...