Fixed term contracts of employment between employers and employees exist for a specific period of time. This article aims to explore the nature of fixed-term contracts and their effect where employees who are employed on fixed-term contracts have developed a reasonable expectation of renewal....

We use 92,632,873 daily returns for 33,010 US firms to establish the best forecasting model for realized idiosyncratic variances. Comparing forecasts from 10 different models, we find that the most popular models, the martingale and GARCH type models, perform worst. Using the...

In this chapter, I review the elicitation and use of subjective expectations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). I begin by describing several elicitation methods used in this context, together with the key relevant methodological issues, typical patterns of answers, and further...

Economic theory predicts that expectations on future house price growth are related to the current price. We test this relationship for the supply side of the secondary housing market using micro data linking individual expectations to subjective owner-estimatedvalues (OEV). We perform...

This paper presents a model where business cycles are driven by the confidence shock that shifts agents’ beliefs about others’ economic activities. Trade linkages and incomplete information admits belief-driven fluctuations even with fixed aggregate fluctuations, but also make equilibrium...

This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate...

This paper develops a theory of social norms of beliefs and opinions, which provides an account of political correctness and the backlash against it. Social norms about opinion expression emerge as equilibria of a signaling game in which expressing an unpopular opinion leads to bad judgments...

Many transactions in the marketplace rely on hard (or verifiable) information about the underlying value of the intended exchange, typically through certification--- housing, diamonds, bonds being cases in point. What is the class of Pareto efficient certifications for such scenarios? This paper...

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK as well as on the attractiveness of other EU countries as destinations. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before...