This paper develops a simple econometric procedure for estimating expected exchange rate under target zones. We employ the linear projection methodology to make predictions without relying on any prior structural or distributional assumptions, and at the same time demonstrate that such a...

This paper quantifies the economic costs of distortions in managerial forecasts. We match a unique managerial survey run by the Bank of Italy with administrative data on firm balance sheets and income statements. The resulting dataset allows us to observe a long panel of managerial forecast...

The object of this paper is to test several familiar hypotheses about the relationship between the forward rates implied by the term structure and interest rate expectations, using the one ongoing systematic survey that samples market participants' expectations. The substitution of survey data...

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables,...

Unlike price expectations, which are central to macroeconomic theory and have been examined extensively using survey data, formation of individuals' horizons, which are central to the theory of life-cycle behavior, have been completely neglected. This is especially surprising since life...

We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego-relevance of the task, we show that subjects update their beliefs optimistically because they derive direct utility flows from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral...

Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect...

We study the effect of the home bias on international asset pricing by extending the core-satellite approach of active asset allocation to an equilibrium analysis. In this framework, investors combine a common core portfolio with an active investment in their home asset. In equilibrium, the core...

Identifying the components of yields is a challenging task for monetary authorities. We use a stochastic volatility macro term structure model to estimate time-varying term premia and short-rate expectations for ten countries in the euro area. The model relies on country-specific factors and...

This paper studies a bilateral risk-sharing problem where both agents are rank-dependent utility maximizers. The market restricts risk allocations to be comonotonic. We first characterize the optimal risk allocation in an implicit way through the calculus of variations. Then, based on the...