This article starts with the conjecture that the subjective element of expectations is important for understanding and measuring the effects of government’s indebtedness on financial market rates. For this purpose we propose a modern model of extrapolative expectations for the Debt-to-GDP...

We investigate how households update their interest rate and inflation expectations upon hearing monetary condition news, and to what extent this changes their readiness to spend. Using data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers from December 2008 to December 2015, we find 1) the likelihood of...

We study a class of endowment economies with long-run risks in which agents have generalized recursive smooth ambiguity preferences and heterogeneous beliefs. The expected growth rate of aggregate consumption consists of a persistent component. Agents cannot observe the component but learn about...

Both empirical evidence and theoretical discussion has long emphasized the impact of 'news' on exchange rates. In most exchange rate models, the exchange rate acts as an asset price, and as such responds to news about future returns on assets. But the exchange rate also plays a role in...

We investigate a quantitative Aumann's Agreement Theorem and provide a generalization of the characterization in Arieli et al. (2021) from binary state spaces to arbitrary finite state spaces. Using a network flow approach, we show that the cut condition for a feasible multiflow problem gives...

Recent studies show that the consensus forecasts of professional forecasters and central bankers underreact to news relative to full-information rational expectations. However, can the treasury bond market anticipate such underreaction through information aggregation? To answer this question, we...

We empirically study sources of abnormal changes, henceforth jumps, simultaneously in investor beliefs and asset prices using 164 million tweets from a social media investing platform, StockTwits. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that on average 4.88% (7.88%) jumps in asset prices (investor...

In the presence of economies of scale in the investment technology, trade openness may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment, its cyclical behavior, and the volatility of the terms of trade. Trade openness may lead to boom-bust cycles of investment supported by self-fulfilling...

We examine the relative importance of accuracy concerns and belief confirmation motives in driving the demand for news. In experiments with US respondents, we first vary beliefs about whether an outlet reports the news in a right-wing biased, left-wing biased, or unbiased way. We then measure...

We review the recent literature on the determinants and effects of housing market expectations. We begin by providing an overview of existing surveys that elicit housing market expectations, and discuss how those surveys may be expanded in the future. We then document a number of facts about...