This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments...

The objective of the paper is to analyse the labour market behaviour of older workers, specifically cross-country differences in expectations regarding the exit from the labour market and subsequent realization. Using longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data...

We analyse a gradual increase in the tax on emissions in a simple two-period New Key- nesian model with an AS-AD representation. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting...

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was set up in June 2010 as a temporary crisis resolution mechanism. In October 2012, its tasks were taken over by European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a permanent institution with a capital-based structure. Liquidity conditions for EFSF bonds in...

This paper builds a joint theory of endogenous inflation expectations and consumption-savings choices of heterogeneous households. We introduce imperfect information about future inflation rates in a consumption-savings model and allow households to exert costly effort to reduce uncertainty...

Investors weigh financial and sustainability information for their investment decisions, but evidence regarding the drivers of individual investors’ weighting is limited. Thus, we examine whether investors’ sustainability preferences, higher-order beliefs about other investors’...

This paper examines whether perceptions of discrimination affect the economic expectations of U.S. households. We focus on two forms of expectations that play a central role in economic and financial decisions: labor income and inflation. Using experimental data, we show that discrimination...

An important determinant of belief polarization is the different interpretations of the same information. We examine whether discourse uncertainty in corporate disclosures, an important driver of differential interpretations, leads to polarization in financial markets. Using a novel measure of...